Zoltar Speaks...

Well, by popular demand, and by that I mean 1/3 of my viewers, here is my prediction for the 2008/2009 premierleague season (subject to change, of course!). You have paid your quarter, now either all of this will come true, or you will wake up tomorrow looking like Tom Hanks:

Champions:

1. Manchester United. Can Man U compete like they did last year? Maybe. I think so. Well . . . yea, I think so. A lot rides on Ronaldo. I don't expect the same form as last year. I personally think the slave must be freed and released to Real Madrid (galactico days are over, eh?). His attitude hurts the team because he is too big for the English show now. I am not that worried, though, as Nani has matured a lot and can step into his shoes fairly easily. A lot rides on the fitness of the older Man U players, though. Man U was fortunate as far as injuries were concerned last year, and similar luck will be key to their success. Pulling in an additional striker who can work with Tevez and Rooney, and play as a winger as well, will help a lot. It's hard to bet against Sir Alex Ferguson.

Champions League Qualifiers

2. Liverpool. This year, Liverpool will come the closest that they have in a long time to winning the premierleague, but will ultimately fall short for one main reason: Rafa Benitez's rotation policy. Benitez inexplicably has the support of the fans and owners, but has consistently failed to bring home the one prize that every one wants. I personally think that the owners would fire him, but can't afford to. Darlings of the european tournaments where Benitez's tactical superiority and desire to play a more controlled game works well against the Europeans who adopt that approach, Liverpool cannot compete with Man U and Chelsea in England. English football is a rough, fast-paced game that requires depth in talent. Liverpool has proven EPL talent in its starting lineup, especially down the spine of the formation, but continues to disappoint on the wings and on the bench. Man U and Chelsea can almost choose between 2 world class players in each position, and when competing in every competition out there, depth in class saves you from having to rotate good players with less-talented players or disrupt the formation that your team works best in. The fight among the top teams to win all of the trophies in England and Europe is much like the "meat grinder" of the front lines of WWI: keep throwing men at the battle until the team with the most, fit players at the end of the season wins. Much like last year, Benitez will likely have the best transfer of the summer and not play him.

3. Chelsea. Chelsea will again disappoint Abramovich this year. Scolari is an excellent coach with a proven record of success in International coaching, but even I could probably do pretty well coaching Brazil and Portugal in their prime. Chelsea arguably has the best central midfield in the world, but I think that works to its detriment. Too many egos and not enough room on the pitch. Essien I think should always start as a true CM or defensive CM. The problem is that Lamps, Ballack and Deco all play in the attacking CM role. It was hard enough to please Lamps and Ballack at the same time, but while Deco is humble and is probably the better choice from an "attractive football" perspective (and speaks and thinks portugese like Scolari), where are Ballack and Lampard going to go? To include even 2 of the 3 pushes Essien back farther than he would want. I don't see Chelsea winning the EPL this year, but they have a good chance at winning the Champions League and both English cups because of their sheer depth in talent.

4. Portsmouth. I know! I'm freaking crazy to predict this, but I just feel that something weird is going to happen this year and I don't think Tottenham, AV, or Everton will break the mold, at least as it stands right now. I predict that the Crouch-Defoe combination will be one of the top 3 sriker combos this year, along with Torres/Keane and Rooney/Tevez. Both national team fringe players looking for respect, I think Harry will get the best out of both of them, as he so often does. Look for Crouch to hold the ball and Defoe to slot it home, but don't forget that Crouch can suprisingly turn and shoot himself, so you don't know who to be looking for. Also, I am a firm believer that Lassana Diarra is a world-class central midfielder, and, given the chance, can compete with Fabregas on passing and control. Had Wenger bet on him instead of Flamini, Arsenal would probably be my #4 right now. Portsmouth has a great defence and a good keeper as well. Having thankfully avoided the distraction of the UEFA cup, Portsmouth can break into the top 4 this year.

Uefa Cup Qualifier

5. Arsenal. Arsenal are the Big 4 team that will get the boot this year for the same reason that makes them so fun to watch - they are a group of talented youngsters. Arsenal's express strategy is to buy young and cheap, develop a very promising world class player, and sell for a profit. The problem is that you need expereince to win, and they just don't have it. If they had kept the full squad from last year, and kept them healthy, I would say they had a chance to win the league, but they are an injury-prone, young team. There are no guarantees in today's EPL.

6. Tottenham. I want so badly for Tottenham to break into the top 4 this year, especially with all of their exciting pick-ups this summer. On paper, I'd say they were shoe-ins. However, I feel that Tottenham is in for a decent, but very tough first full season under Ramos. T'ham's acquisitions are very exciting prospects, but there's no guarantee that they will gel as a team, or that they will adapt to the EPL. Losing Keane was a big blow to them. I know why he had to go, but if he had stayed, as well as Berbatov, I would say definite top 4 finish. Berba is great, but he needs a partner of Keane's intelligence. Darren Bent is a loss waiting to be written down on the books. He is really fast, but lacks confidence and a killer instinct in front of the net. It looks as if Berba will also be replaced by a newcomer to the EPL - maybe a russian. Who knows how well these new guys will adapt.

Intertoto Cup Qualifier

7. Everton. Always challenging for the top 4, I think that Everton will have to settle for an Intertoto cup place this year. Their transfer season, while not over, hasn't been too encouraging, and I think that their invovlement in the UEFA cup this year will be a big distraction. Fitness and form are huge concerns as well. I would love to see joao moutinho in the EPL, but I have no idea how well he will adapt.

The Rest

8. Aston Villa. A promising team with one of the best coaches in England, AV will have a relatively disappointing year. The Barry saga has really hurt the team and damaged the relationship between the coach and the captain. This will undoubtedly affect Villa in the coming term. Also, AV are competing in Europe, a big deal to them, and they have the smallest side in the EPL. Bouma is already injured and I think they only have like 4 or 5 other defenders to play most or all of the season? Injuries to 2 more of their starters and I don't see AV in the top half of the table.

9. Sunderland. Shocker, right? Roy Keane is a fiery competitor and has declared his intentions by having, I would say, one of the best transfer seasons in England. Sunderland already has a great keeper and a good, promising striker, but has basically imported some of Tottenham's best and most underused players. Chimbonda, Malbranque, Tainio (maybe Kaboul) and also Diouf? That's a great pull for a perenially struggling team. Keane is a good coach as well and will get the most from his players. Nothing else to compete for, I see top half for Keane's boys.

10. Middlesborough. Another shocker. Much like Sunderland, 'borough is a perenial botton-half team. However, the difference this year is the fact that two big acquisitions from last year now have gotten used to the EPL. Look for Tuncay and Alves to light it up this year. Also expect Downing, Wheater, Young and a newly fit-Mido to shine as well. The biggest problem is the keeper role, as I don't think the current stock are too reliable.

11. Manchester City. Man City, West Ham, Newcastle and Blackburn all fall into a big grey area, and really, it doesn't matter where they fall at this point in the table. I loved watching the new Man City last year, especially Elano and Petrov. Compared to the prior years, I can't say how much better they have gotten. However, they should have stuck with Eriksson. Hughes is a great, up and coming coach, but his style doesn't mix with the owner and that will be a source of conflict. Sven has a penchant for spending other people's money and I think he could have pulled some more top players this summer. There is no depth at Man City and they are competing in the UEFA Cup, which I bet will be the focus for the team this year - Thaksin really wants to win something. I really look forward to seeing how well Jo adapts, and I hope he plays well. Everybody loves a brazillian.

12. West Ham. The best thing about West Ham is their firm (GSE!). I could care less about West Ham football. They are just OK. They have an OK coach with OK players. I would love for them to prove me wrong. What more can be said?

13. Newcastle. Oh Lord. Where to start? So far a VERY disappointing transfer season for the Magpies. It's the summer of what could have been. Gutierrez and Guthrie, both promising, but really unproven with their past teams. Bassong, who is he? Haven't we shown that we can't pick foreign players that will be successful in the EPL? We are a real mess this year. It looks like Cashley isn't backing us the way we thought, and I'm just not sure about Keegan - he may have used up all of his success about 10 years ago. What do we need? Every position, really. We need a dominating central midfielder, a consistent, healthy striker, 3 new starting full backs and consistent, strong leadership. Smudge is a whiner, Martins and NZogbia think they're better than they are, Viduka, Duff and Owen are past their prime, and Barton is about to take them all on in a fight. I just wish Taylor and Milner would mature about 2 years over the next 2 weeks, as I think they are the future of the team. Another bottom half finish unless something miraculous happens soon.

14. Blackburn. Losing Bentley and Hughes will be a HUGE loss for this team. A good team all around, their incoming players are not great, and I expect someone will tempt Santa Cruz away from Ewood Park by September. Unless McCarthy and Pedersen have the year they had 2 years ago, look for a near-relegation season.

15. Fulham. Fulham, Brom, Wigan and Bolton all fall into another grey area. One of them is going down, I just am not sure who. As the saying goes, if you buy Championship League players, that's where you will end up. Dodi Fayed's reluctance to invest in an EPL team in London amazes me. There is probably no better place to try to build a team. However, he has tight purse strings and this will be a close year again. Having brought in Andy Johnson and having a fit Jimmy Bullard will help significantly.

16. Wigan. Wigan could suprise this year. I think they will either barely survive the drop or will finish close to the top half. They have had a strong summer in the market and have a midfield that may suprise a few people. Valencia, Palacios, Kapo and Cattermole are all very promising. Also, bringing in Zaki up front, a huge, dominating striker and one of the Middle East's best players, will prove to be interesting for unsuspecting teams. I would like to see them do well this year, not just survive.

17. West Brom. Probably the one promoted team that will survive for another year in the EPL. Pretty good transfer season, especially Scott Carson, and a historical familiarity with the EPL will give them the edge. They are still lacking up front, though.

Relegation

18. Bolton. Sorry Bolton, you should never have let Big Sam go - and I say that as a Newcastle fan. A poor summer and a lack of confidence puts Bolton on the track for relegation. I would love to see Johan Elmander, a top class Volvo, do very well, but I don't think he has what it takes to keep them up. If they sell Meite, their best defender, look out. They may bleed goals this year.

19. Hull City. I think Hull has made some great acquisitions in the form of Boateng and Geovanni, but they seroiusly lack striking power and depth. Also, it is well settled that Geovanni, a classy Brazillian, doesn't like the cold and will not play as well as expected come October thru April. Mendy, Gardner and Rocha have good expereince, but are ultimately championship level players.

20. Stoke. Stoke, save your $, which you obviously are, because you're screwed. Kitson isn't good enough to save you from the drop. At least you have the goal of trying to do better than Derby.

Timing is Everything in Memphis

I have a lot of reasons to be happy that I recently left Memphis. I certainly don't hate the place, but I am much happier since I moved away. Aside from the fact that in the past month, multiple innocent people have been hit by stray bullets - once at the fourth of July celebration downtown and then this week at the freaking MEMPHIS ZOO, Memphis politics really got under my skin (and i'm not even going to talk about the well-known corruption there, either).

Memphis politics is somewhat legendary in its ability to create a lot of nonsensical controversy, yet actually not do much good for the people of Memphis. It's even more frustrating because most Memphians are REALLY into local politics and many people really want to do some good for that town, but the city just doesn't seem to want to help itself sometimes. For the people who want to do good, and have the energy and resources to make things happen, they often just get burned out trying to change the system. Unfortunately empty words, false promises and skin color go farther than real potential in Memphis.

The recent bill passed by the U.S. House is a great example of Memphis politics. Rep. Steve Cohen, the first white congressman from the overwhelmingly black 9th district in who knows how long, recent got a bill passed through the House extending an official apology to black people for the U.S. government's toleration and advancement of slavery and oppression in America.

I think this apology is a good thing and has been a long time coming, but the problem is the obvious purpose for which it was designed and nearly every commentator in America has been quick to point this out: Steve Cohen BARELY got his seat in the House and his hotly contested seat is set to be lost in the 9th district democratic primaries next week! This is shameless politics, I think, designed to build up his support for next week's primary. The timing is impeccable.
My beef is that while this is a good thing and is a long time coming, some language worries people because of the controversial issue of "reparations" payments to african americans for slavery. That is a bad idea for many reasons, one of which is the fact that it would further bankrupt our already insolvent country!
Here's the open-ended language that most people don't like in the bill:

"[The US government] expresses its commitment to rectify the lingering consequences of the misdeeds committed against African-Americans under slavery and Jim Crow and to stop the occurrence of human rights violations in the future."

No one knows what "rectify" means, but this is how unpopular laws are passed in this country - deliberate ambiguity. If you make a bill open-ended, it leaves room down the road to pass currently unpopular legislation when you get a party majority in Congress and the White House and/or America's social views change over time.

Taking a look at the bills that Cohen has sponsored in his short time in Congress gives a good idea of what he is all about: words and symbolic gestures, not real assistance to the 9th district or this country. Just take a look at the bills he has sponsored.

I support the general meaning and purpose of the apology bill. I don't support the timing and purpose of its sponsor. It is designed more for his gain than the greater good of his constituency and America. Typical of Memphis Politics, I think.

You'll Never Walk Alone, Robbie Keane

This week saw one major transfer in the British market - Robbie Keane (pictured below), prolific Irish striker and captain of Tottenham, was transferred to Liverpool for 20 Million Pounds (Sorry, BT). Yes, that's about $40 Million to us Yanks - and that was just for the transfer. Robbie likely gets a very small percentage of that, if anything, but he'll be OK. I think he's getting about $160,000 a week to play for them for the next 4 years, so he won't go hungry.

I think few people anticipated this transfer at the beginning of the summer, as Keane was a fixture at White Hart Lane, all the talk was about Dimitar Berbatov, Keane's world-class strike partner going to Manchester United or to one of Europe's big teams, and Liverpool apparently didn't have any money and really wanted Gareth Barry or a world class winger. However, never count out the impact of a player's desire to play for the club he supported as a boy. This transfer is Keane's dream come true and I don't doubt that the thought of him partnering up front for Liverpool with Fernando Torres - last season's top scorer among strikers in the EPL and the scorer of the winning goal for Spain in the UEFA 2008 tournament this summer - causes many fans to salivate. The minute I heard about this transfer, I had to put Keane on my fantasy team, as he is relatively affordable, is extremely intelligent, and I am willing to bet will be a top 5 striker this season due to the goals and assists that his partnership will create with Torres.

This is easily the best move that Rafa Benitez could have made for Liverpool in his charge for the premiership. Torres was a world class pickup last summer, but Kuyt, Crouch and Voronin were no good and didn't give Torres the service he needed (although he still scored 20+ goals). Keane is an equally intelligent player and sees passing routes and places himself very well on the pitch, as does Torres. I picture the Keane - Torres - Gerrard triumvirate to be one of the most effective in the EPL this year. As it compares to striker/midfield combos from the other top EPL teams, Liverpool has the only group that is healthy and has proven EPL class. I can't wait to see what happens.

The Credit Crunch Hits Home.

No, we didn't have trouble getting a mortgage and will be moving into our new house this fall. I am referring to the trouble that the world's economy is giving fans of the beautiful game.

Football is the beautiful game, but today it is also a very big business. Some say that the influx of big money has been to the detriment of the game, but I say bring it on. More investment means more exposure to the world and, my immediate concern, more transfers!

As stated in my previous post, I love the transfer season. It is lots of fun to speculate about who is going where, which team needs which players, and to think about how much better or more exciting a team will be after an acquisition. My wife mocks me, because I love to search the web for new info on transfers. This is essentially 'gossip,' and I can't deny that it is very similar to her love for People and US magazine. It is exciting to see the young players get snapped up by the big teams, as we all want to know who the next big player is going to be or who to look out for in the fantasy transfer market for a cheap pick-up.

The credit crunch has hit the world economy hard because banks are cautious about lending and exposing themselves to ANY risk, it seems, and they are all scrambling to protect their capital reserves in the face of so many bad loans that are being written off worldwide, not just in America (Spain is getting hit badly as well - a number of teams are being sold off because their owners counted on cheap and available financing to fund their teams or their primary businesses). Some teams, like Levante in Spain, owe their players for like 6 months worth of wages! The lack of available credit has caused potential club takeovers to stall or caused many investors to sell their clubs (Who wants to buy Derby, anyone? I didn't think so.) Now Liverpool can't afford to build their pretty new stadium!

The crunch also provides less money for transfers, and in the overly inflated market for top players, transfer prices, or the perceived worth of a player to a team, have doubled in the past 5 years. The result means fewer transfers of big and even above-average players. I can't say i've been too disappointed with transfers this summer (omitting the sorry state at Newcastle), but it has seen more smaller players being sold to purchase bigger names. There's nothing wrong with this, as it produces more activity overall and redistributes talent accross the leagues, but the lack of financing has prevented many teams from even acquiring mid-level players who are overvalued by their clubs (once again, see Newcastle). This is pretty disappointing.

The situation is similar to the US housing market. People would love to live near Hillsboro Village in Nashville, and to be honest, we all want cool people moving there because that makes the area cooler (it would be even better if we were those cool people). The problem is that people can't afford a $500,000 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom house without access to easy credit - the same credit that allowed the price to escalate to 2x its value! The big difference with the football market is that the sellers dont often have to sell, unlike in housing; therefore the prices dont drop as quickly (only 2 transfer periods/year), if ever.

In summary, I think the whole point of this post is to say that I am pissed that Newcastle aren't out there in the market, having only brought in two young, but relatively unknown players for relatively modest sums. I know Cashley wants to balance the books, but look at other teams like our rivals, Sunderland. They have maybe had one of the smartest transfer seasons of all the teams and stand to whoop up on Newcastle this fall or at least give them a run for their money. Sunderland, Cashley! Are you kidding me??

It's The Hap-Happiest Season of All...

Yes, it's almost here! And every year someone says, "they start promoting it earlier and earlier every year." Christmas? That's great, but I'm talking about the start of the european football seasons. To many readers, this would be the start of the "soccer" season (said in a harsh faux-american accent, a la, Charlie Hunnam in "Green Street Hooligans" - "Haewdy!")! I started playing soccer when I was 4. I became a football fan when I was 24. It's what the game is called, so that's what I'm calling it.

Christmas comes early every year around mid-august for millions of football fans around the world. I am particularly fond of the English Premier League, mainly because it's fast-paced, everyone speaks english, and it's relatively accessible in America.

One of the best things about the football season is that it lasts from August to May each year! That's a 10 month season with multiple tournaments in each domestic league and inter-country tournaments to boot! That ultimately means you get a football match every 4-6 days for 10 months! Compared to american sports, these athletes (running and sprinting 4-7 miles/game) are true thoroughbreds, and the world can't get enough. Let's just say that June will see many symptoms of footie withdrawal. It is truly the beautiful game.

On top of just getting to participate as a fan of the beautiful game, God has looked favorably upon his creation and has given us fantasy football as well. Now, we all know someone who is deep into fantasy football (US), baseball or basketball here in the States, but in Jolly Ol' and around the world, fantasy football is an absorbing passion, which, as is obvious, has absorbed me as well. Nothing like trying to stay on top of injuries, transfers, gossip, etc. when there are new games every 4-6 days.

Outside of work and family, managing my fantasy football team takes up a lot of time and is an obsession. I already have some obsessive tendencies, but I could probably list "surfing skysports, bbc, goal.com and soccernet.com for even the slighest bit of new info on the beautiful game" as a part time job. Additionally, my friends and I have a league that we compete in. I have to admit that I talk a big game, but have never finished higher than 4th in the league (Champs League qualifier, baby!). Regardless, it is lots of fun and creates some heated rivalries.

So, why post all this? Why not? You will need a primer for what's to come in the future. Look out!

My First Post

Well, my wife is gonna have a field day with this, but even I think having a blog would be cool. For the past couple of years I have been living vicariously through her excellent blog, read the world over, and I feel that I should have my own. After all, who wouldn't want to have two blogs to look at pictures of Charlotte?

While I can't help but talk about family, I plan on talking a little more about what's going on in my head, from the shallow end to the deep end. So often I get caught up in work and the hectic life of marriage and parenting and leave little time to be me, something I used to be all about. Therefore, this is an experiment in self-actualization, if you will.

Let's be honest, i'll probably just end up talking about family, soccer and music. Enjoy!

I have to give props to my lifelong friend Will Akin who has not only one, but two blogs. His brazen choice to give the world the bird and say "I don't care what you think!" has given me the courage to do the same.