Well, by popular demand, and by that I mean 1/3 of my viewers, here is my prediction for the 2008/2009 premierleague season (subject to change, of course!). You have paid your quarter, now either all of this will come true, or you will wake up tomorrow looking like Tom Hanks:
Champions:
1. Manchester United. Can Man U compete like they did last year? Maybe. I think so. Well . . . yea, I think so. A lot rides on Ronaldo. I don't expect the same form as last year. I personally think the slave must be freed and released to Real Madrid (galactico days are over, eh?). His attitude hurts the team because he is too big for the English show now. I am not that worried, though, as Nani has matured a lot and can step into his shoes fairly easily. A lot rides on the fitness of the older Man U players, though. Man U was fortunate as far as injuries were concerned last year, and similar luck will be key to their success. Pulling in an additional striker who can work with Tevez and Rooney, and play as a winger as well, will help a lot. It's hard to bet against Sir Alex Ferguson.
Champions League Qualifiers
2. Liverpool. This year, Liverpool will come the closest that they have in a long time to winning the premierleague, but will ultimately fall short for one main reason: Rafa Benitez's rotation policy. Benitez inexplicably has the support of the fans and owners, but has consistently failed to bring home the one prize that every one wants. I personally think that the owners would fire him, but can't afford to. Darlings of the european tournaments where Benitez's tactical superiority and desire to play a more controlled game works well against the Europeans who adopt that approach, Liverpool cannot compete with Man U and Chelsea in England. English football is a rough, fast-paced game that requires depth in talent. Liverpool has proven EPL talent in its starting lineup, especially down the spine of the formation, but continues to disappoint on the wings and on the bench. Man U and Chelsea can almost choose between 2 world class players in each position, and when competing in every competition out there, depth in class saves you from having to rotate good players with less-talented players or disrupt the formation that your team works best in. The fight among the top teams to win all of the trophies in England and Europe is much like the "meat grinder" of the front lines of WWI: keep throwing men at the battle until the team with the most, fit players at the end of the season wins. Much like last year, Benitez will likely have the best transfer of the summer and not play him.
3. Chelsea. Chelsea will again disappoint Abramovich this year. Scolari is an excellent coach with a proven record of success in International coaching, but even I could probably do pretty well coaching Brazil and Portugal in their prime. Chelsea arguably has the best central midfield in the world, but I think that works to its detriment. Too many egos and not enough room on the pitch. Essien I think should always start as a true CM or defensive CM. The problem is that Lamps, Ballack and Deco all play in the attacking CM role. It was hard enough to please Lamps and Ballack at the same time, but while Deco is humble and is probably the better choice from an "attractive football" perspective (and speaks and thinks portugese like Scolari), where are Ballack and Lampard going to go? To include even 2 of the 3 pushes Essien back farther than he would want. I don't see Chelsea winning the EPL this year, but they have a good chance at winning the Champions League and both English cups because of their sheer depth in talent.
4. Portsmouth. I know! I'm freaking crazy to predict this, but I just feel that something weird is going to happen this year and I don't think Tottenham, AV, or Everton will break the mold, at least as it stands right now. I predict that the Crouch-Defoe combination will be one of the top 3 sriker combos this year, along with Torres/Keane and Rooney/Tevez. Both national team fringe players looking for respect, I think Harry will get the best out of both of them, as he so often does. Look for Crouch to hold the ball and Defoe to slot it home, but don't forget that Crouch can suprisingly turn and shoot himself, so you don't know who to be looking for. Also, I am a firm believer that Lassana Diarra is a world-class central midfielder, and, given the chance, can compete with Fabregas on passing and control. Had Wenger bet on him instead of Flamini, Arsenal would probably be my #4 right now. Portsmouth has a great defence and a good keeper as well. Having thankfully avoided the distraction of the UEFA cup, Portsmouth can break into the top 4 this year.
Uefa Cup Qualifier
5. Arsenal. Arsenal are the Big 4 team that will get the boot this year for the same reason that makes them so fun to watch - they are a group of talented youngsters. Arsenal's express strategy is to buy young and cheap, develop a very promising world class player, and sell for a profit. The problem is that you need expereince to win, and they just don't have it. If they had kept the full squad from last year, and kept them healthy, I would say they had a chance to win the league, but they are an injury-prone, young team. There are no guarantees in today's EPL.
6. Tottenham. I want so badly for Tottenham to break into the top 4 this year, especially with all of their exciting pick-ups this summer. On paper, I'd say they were shoe-ins. However, I feel that Tottenham is in for a decent, but very tough first full season under Ramos. T'ham's acquisitions are very exciting prospects, but there's no guarantee that they will gel as a team, or that they will adapt to the EPL. Losing Keane was a big blow to them. I know why he had to go, but if he had stayed, as well as Berbatov, I would say definite top 4 finish. Berba is great, but he needs a partner of Keane's intelligence. Darren Bent is a loss waiting to be written down on the books. He is really fast, but lacks confidence and a killer instinct in front of the net. It looks as if Berba will also be replaced by a newcomer to the EPL - maybe a russian. Who knows how well these new guys will adapt.
Intertoto Cup Qualifier
7. Everton. Always challenging for the top 4, I think that Everton will have to settle for an Intertoto cup place this year. Their transfer season, while not over, hasn't been too encouraging, and I think that their invovlement in the UEFA cup this year will be a big distraction. Fitness and form are huge concerns as well. I would love to see joao moutinho in the EPL, but I have no idea how well he will adapt.
The Rest
8. Aston Villa. A promising team with one of the best coaches in England, AV will have a relatively disappointing year. The Barry saga has really hurt the team and damaged the relationship between the coach and the captain. This will undoubtedly affect Villa in the coming term. Also, AV are competing in Europe, a big deal to them, and they have the smallest side in the EPL. Bouma is already injured and I think they only have like 4 or 5 other defenders to play most or all of the season? Injuries to 2 more of their starters and I don't see AV in the top half of the table.
9. Sunderland. Shocker, right? Roy Keane is a fiery competitor and has declared his intentions by having, I would say, one of the best transfer seasons in England. Sunderland already has a great keeper and a good, promising striker, but has basically imported some of Tottenham's best and most underused players. Chimbonda, Malbranque, Tainio (maybe Kaboul) and also Diouf? That's a great pull for a perenially struggling team. Keane is a good coach as well and will get the most from his players. Nothing else to compete for, I see top half for Keane's boys.
10. Middlesborough. Another shocker. Much like Sunderland, 'borough is a perenial botton-half team. However, the difference this year is the fact that two big acquisitions from last year now have gotten used to the EPL. Look for Tuncay and Alves to light it up this year. Also expect Downing, Wheater, Young and a newly fit-Mido to shine as well. The biggest problem is the keeper role, as I don't think the current stock are too reliable.
11. Manchester City. Man City, West Ham, Newcastle and Blackburn all fall into a big grey area, and really, it doesn't matter where they fall at this point in the table. I loved watching the new Man City last year, especially Elano and Petrov. Compared to the prior years, I can't say how much better they have gotten. However, they should have stuck with Eriksson. Hughes is a great, up and coming coach, but his style doesn't mix with the owner and that will be a source of conflict. Sven has a penchant for spending other people's money and I think he could have pulled some more top players this summer. There is no depth at Man City and they are competing in the UEFA Cup, which I bet will be the focus for the team this year - Thaksin really wants to win something. I really look forward to seeing how well Jo adapts, and I hope he plays well. Everybody loves a brazillian.
12. West Ham. The best thing about West Ham is their firm (GSE!). I could care less about West Ham football. They are just OK. They have an OK coach with OK players. I would love for them to prove me wrong. What more can be said?
13. Newcastle. Oh Lord. Where to start? So far a VERY disappointing transfer season for the Magpies. It's the summer of what could have been. Gutierrez and Guthrie, both promising, but really unproven with their past teams. Bassong, who is he? Haven't we shown that we can't pick foreign players that will be successful in the EPL? We are a real mess this year. It looks like Cashley isn't backing us the way we thought, and I'm just not sure about Keegan - he may have used up all of his success about 10 years ago. What do we need? Every position, really. We need a dominating central midfielder, a consistent, healthy striker, 3 new starting full backs and consistent, strong leadership. Smudge is a whiner, Martins and NZogbia think they're better than they are, Viduka, Duff and Owen are past their prime, and Barton is about to take them all on in a fight. I just wish Taylor and Milner would mature about 2 years over the next 2 weeks, as I think they are the future of the team. Another bottom half finish unless something miraculous happens soon.
14. Blackburn. Losing Bentley and Hughes will be a HUGE loss for this team. A good team all around, their incoming players are not great, and I expect someone will tempt Santa Cruz away from Ewood Park by September. Unless McCarthy and Pedersen have the year they had 2 years ago, look for a near-relegation season.
15. Fulham. Fulham, Brom, Wigan and Bolton all fall into another grey area. One of them is going down, I just am not sure who. As the saying goes, if you buy Championship League players, that's where you will end up. Dodi Fayed's reluctance to invest in an EPL team in London amazes me. There is probably no better place to try to build a team. However, he has tight purse strings and this will be a close year again. Having brought in Andy Johnson and having a fit Jimmy Bullard will help significantly.
16. Wigan. Wigan could suprise this year. I think they will either barely survive the drop or will finish close to the top half. They have had a strong summer in the market and have a midfield that may suprise a few people. Valencia, Palacios, Kapo and Cattermole are all very promising. Also, bringing in Zaki up front, a huge, dominating striker and one of the Middle East's best players, will prove to be interesting for unsuspecting teams. I would like to see them do well this year, not just survive.
17. West Brom. Probably the one promoted team that will survive for another year in the EPL. Pretty good transfer season, especially Scott Carson, and a historical familiarity with the EPL will give them the edge. They are still lacking up front, though.
Relegation
18. Bolton. Sorry Bolton, you should never have let Big Sam go - and I say that as a Newcastle fan. A poor summer and a lack of confidence puts Bolton on the track for relegation. I would love to see Johan Elmander, a top class Volvo, do very well, but I don't think he has what it takes to keep them up. If they sell Meite, their best defender, look out. They may bleed goals this year.
19. Hull City. I think Hull has made some great acquisitions in the form of Boateng and Geovanni, but they seroiusly lack striking power and depth. Also, it is well settled that Geovanni, a classy Brazillian, doesn't like the cold and will not play as well as expected come October thru April. Mendy, Gardner and Rocha have good expereince, but are ultimately championship level players.
20. Stoke. Stoke, save your $, which you obviously are, because you're screwed. Kitson isn't good enough to save you from the drop. At least you have the goal of trying to do better than Derby.
Champions:
1. Manchester United. Can Man U compete like they did last year? Maybe. I think so. Well . . . yea, I think so. A lot rides on Ronaldo. I don't expect the same form as last year. I personally think the slave must be freed and released to Real Madrid (galactico days are over, eh?). His attitude hurts the team because he is too big for the English show now. I am not that worried, though, as Nani has matured a lot and can step into his shoes fairly easily. A lot rides on the fitness of the older Man U players, though. Man U was fortunate as far as injuries were concerned last year, and similar luck will be key to their success. Pulling in an additional striker who can work with Tevez and Rooney, and play as a winger as well, will help a lot. It's hard to bet against Sir Alex Ferguson.
Champions League Qualifiers
2. Liverpool. This year, Liverpool will come the closest that they have in a long time to winning the premierleague, but will ultimately fall short for one main reason: Rafa Benitez's rotation policy. Benitez inexplicably has the support of the fans and owners, but has consistently failed to bring home the one prize that every one wants. I personally think that the owners would fire him, but can't afford to. Darlings of the european tournaments where Benitez's tactical superiority and desire to play a more controlled game works well against the Europeans who adopt that approach, Liverpool cannot compete with Man U and Chelsea in England. English football is a rough, fast-paced game that requires depth in talent. Liverpool has proven EPL talent in its starting lineup, especially down the spine of the formation, but continues to disappoint on the wings and on the bench. Man U and Chelsea can almost choose between 2 world class players in each position, and when competing in every competition out there, depth in class saves you from having to rotate good players with less-talented players or disrupt the formation that your team works best in. The fight among the top teams to win all of the trophies in England and Europe is much like the "meat grinder" of the front lines of WWI: keep throwing men at the battle until the team with the most, fit players at the end of the season wins. Much like last year, Benitez will likely have the best transfer of the summer and not play him.
3. Chelsea. Chelsea will again disappoint Abramovich this year. Scolari is an excellent coach with a proven record of success in International coaching, but even I could probably do pretty well coaching Brazil and Portugal in their prime. Chelsea arguably has the best central midfield in the world, but I think that works to its detriment. Too many egos and not enough room on the pitch. Essien I think should always start as a true CM or defensive CM. The problem is that Lamps, Ballack and Deco all play in the attacking CM role. It was hard enough to please Lamps and Ballack at the same time, but while Deco is humble and is probably the better choice from an "attractive football" perspective (and speaks and thinks portugese like Scolari), where are Ballack and Lampard going to go? To include even 2 of the 3 pushes Essien back farther than he would want. I don't see Chelsea winning the EPL this year, but they have a good chance at winning the Champions League and both English cups because of their sheer depth in talent.
4. Portsmouth. I know! I'm freaking crazy to predict this, but I just feel that something weird is going to happen this year and I don't think Tottenham, AV, or Everton will break the mold, at least as it stands right now. I predict that the Crouch-Defoe combination will be one of the top 3 sriker combos this year, along with Torres/Keane and Rooney/Tevez. Both national team fringe players looking for respect, I think Harry will get the best out of both of them, as he so often does. Look for Crouch to hold the ball and Defoe to slot it home, but don't forget that Crouch can suprisingly turn and shoot himself, so you don't know who to be looking for. Also, I am a firm believer that Lassana Diarra is a world-class central midfielder, and, given the chance, can compete with Fabregas on passing and control. Had Wenger bet on him instead of Flamini, Arsenal would probably be my #4 right now. Portsmouth has a great defence and a good keeper as well. Having thankfully avoided the distraction of the UEFA cup, Portsmouth can break into the top 4 this year.
Uefa Cup Qualifier
5. Arsenal. Arsenal are the Big 4 team that will get the boot this year for the same reason that makes them so fun to watch - they are a group of talented youngsters. Arsenal's express strategy is to buy young and cheap, develop a very promising world class player, and sell for a profit. The problem is that you need expereince to win, and they just don't have it. If they had kept the full squad from last year, and kept them healthy, I would say they had a chance to win the league, but they are an injury-prone, young team. There are no guarantees in today's EPL.
6. Tottenham. I want so badly for Tottenham to break into the top 4 this year, especially with all of their exciting pick-ups this summer. On paper, I'd say they were shoe-ins. However, I feel that Tottenham is in for a decent, but very tough first full season under Ramos. T'ham's acquisitions are very exciting prospects, but there's no guarantee that they will gel as a team, or that they will adapt to the EPL. Losing Keane was a big blow to them. I know why he had to go, but if he had stayed, as well as Berbatov, I would say definite top 4 finish. Berba is great, but he needs a partner of Keane's intelligence. Darren Bent is a loss waiting to be written down on the books. He is really fast, but lacks confidence and a killer instinct in front of the net. It looks as if Berba will also be replaced by a newcomer to the EPL - maybe a russian. Who knows how well these new guys will adapt.
Intertoto Cup Qualifier
7. Everton. Always challenging for the top 4, I think that Everton will have to settle for an Intertoto cup place this year. Their transfer season, while not over, hasn't been too encouraging, and I think that their invovlement in the UEFA cup this year will be a big distraction. Fitness and form are huge concerns as well. I would love to see joao moutinho in the EPL, but I have no idea how well he will adapt.
The Rest
8. Aston Villa. A promising team with one of the best coaches in England, AV will have a relatively disappointing year. The Barry saga has really hurt the team and damaged the relationship between the coach and the captain. This will undoubtedly affect Villa in the coming term. Also, AV are competing in Europe, a big deal to them, and they have the smallest side in the EPL. Bouma is already injured and I think they only have like 4 or 5 other defenders to play most or all of the season? Injuries to 2 more of their starters and I don't see AV in the top half of the table.
9. Sunderland. Shocker, right? Roy Keane is a fiery competitor and has declared his intentions by having, I would say, one of the best transfer seasons in England. Sunderland already has a great keeper and a good, promising striker, but has basically imported some of Tottenham's best and most underused players. Chimbonda, Malbranque, Tainio (maybe Kaboul) and also Diouf? That's a great pull for a perenially struggling team. Keane is a good coach as well and will get the most from his players. Nothing else to compete for, I see top half for Keane's boys.
10. Middlesborough. Another shocker. Much like Sunderland, 'borough is a perenial botton-half team. However, the difference this year is the fact that two big acquisitions from last year now have gotten used to the EPL. Look for Tuncay and Alves to light it up this year. Also expect Downing, Wheater, Young and a newly fit-Mido to shine as well. The biggest problem is the keeper role, as I don't think the current stock are too reliable.
11. Manchester City. Man City, West Ham, Newcastle and Blackburn all fall into a big grey area, and really, it doesn't matter where they fall at this point in the table. I loved watching the new Man City last year, especially Elano and Petrov. Compared to the prior years, I can't say how much better they have gotten. However, they should have stuck with Eriksson. Hughes is a great, up and coming coach, but his style doesn't mix with the owner and that will be a source of conflict. Sven has a penchant for spending other people's money and I think he could have pulled some more top players this summer. There is no depth at Man City and they are competing in the UEFA Cup, which I bet will be the focus for the team this year - Thaksin really wants to win something. I really look forward to seeing how well Jo adapts, and I hope he plays well. Everybody loves a brazillian.
12. West Ham. The best thing about West Ham is their firm (GSE!). I could care less about West Ham football. They are just OK. They have an OK coach with OK players. I would love for them to prove me wrong. What more can be said?
13. Newcastle. Oh Lord. Where to start? So far a VERY disappointing transfer season for the Magpies. It's the summer of what could have been. Gutierrez and Guthrie, both promising, but really unproven with their past teams. Bassong, who is he? Haven't we shown that we can't pick foreign players that will be successful in the EPL? We are a real mess this year. It looks like Cashley isn't backing us the way we thought, and I'm just not sure about Keegan - he may have used up all of his success about 10 years ago. What do we need? Every position, really. We need a dominating central midfielder, a consistent, healthy striker, 3 new starting full backs and consistent, strong leadership. Smudge is a whiner, Martins and NZogbia think they're better than they are, Viduka, Duff and Owen are past their prime, and Barton is about to take them all on in a fight. I just wish Taylor and Milner would mature about 2 years over the next 2 weeks, as I think they are the future of the team. Another bottom half finish unless something miraculous happens soon.
14. Blackburn. Losing Bentley and Hughes will be a HUGE loss for this team. A good team all around, their incoming players are not great, and I expect someone will tempt Santa Cruz away from Ewood Park by September. Unless McCarthy and Pedersen have the year they had 2 years ago, look for a near-relegation season.
15. Fulham. Fulham, Brom, Wigan and Bolton all fall into another grey area. One of them is going down, I just am not sure who. As the saying goes, if you buy Championship League players, that's where you will end up. Dodi Fayed's reluctance to invest in an EPL team in London amazes me. There is probably no better place to try to build a team. However, he has tight purse strings and this will be a close year again. Having brought in Andy Johnson and having a fit Jimmy Bullard will help significantly.
16. Wigan. Wigan could suprise this year. I think they will either barely survive the drop or will finish close to the top half. They have had a strong summer in the market and have a midfield that may suprise a few people. Valencia, Palacios, Kapo and Cattermole are all very promising. Also, bringing in Zaki up front, a huge, dominating striker and one of the Middle East's best players, will prove to be interesting for unsuspecting teams. I would like to see them do well this year, not just survive.
17. West Brom. Probably the one promoted team that will survive for another year in the EPL. Pretty good transfer season, especially Scott Carson, and a historical familiarity with the EPL will give them the edge. They are still lacking up front, though.
Relegation
18. Bolton. Sorry Bolton, you should never have let Big Sam go - and I say that as a Newcastle fan. A poor summer and a lack of confidence puts Bolton on the track for relegation. I would love to see Johan Elmander, a top class Volvo, do very well, but I don't think he has what it takes to keep them up. If they sell Meite, their best defender, look out. They may bleed goals this year.
19. Hull City. I think Hull has made some great acquisitions in the form of Boateng and Geovanni, but they seroiusly lack striking power and depth. Also, it is well settled that Geovanni, a classy Brazillian, doesn't like the cold and will not play as well as expected come October thru April. Mendy, Gardner and Rocha have good expereince, but are ultimately championship level players.
20. Stoke. Stoke, save your $, which you obviously are, because you're screwed. Kitson isn't good enough to save you from the drop. At least you have the goal of trying to do better than Derby.
5 comments:
i wish i was remotely interested in football. i can tell you really put your heart into this post, but i can't bring myself to read it.
I don't expect you to, although I wish you were remotely interested in football. I'm basically speaking to myself out in the abyss of the interwebs. I still think it's fun, though.
Are you going to blog about this before Will? http://tinyurl.com/6jyg5r
Zotlar, I'm impressed with the height and depth of your knowledge of the beautiful game. That is why are you are a lawyer and I am a . . . ? I'm a so excited about this upcoming season; you don't even realize. Man U is opening a bar here in October. You better believe I'll be hitting that on Saturday nights. As long as I'm alive you'll blog alone (sorry I've only got one post thus far but here it is http://andrewparks1980.wordpress.com/ )
I totally applaud your table prediction....no matter how crap it is.
I have a hard time thinking that Arry will be able to get his boys to meet your prediction.
Mark Hughes, i feel will really bring a lot of fight to the Man City squad.
West Ham could be a top 7 side now that they don't have an entire team on the injury table.
Everton i think could really slip.
I also think a very real possiblity of this being a year of the 3 newbies all going down.
Can't wait for the action
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